Everything you need to know about prediction markets
Click "Sign In" in the top right corner, then select "Sign Up" to create your account. You'll receive 0.01 ETH as a welcome bonus to start trading!
Explore the available prediction markets on the homepage. Each market asks a yes/no question about a future event.
Click on any market to view details. Choose YES or NO, enter the number of shares you want to buy, and confirm your trade.
Visit your Portfolio page to see all your active positions and track your performance.
Prediction markets are platforms where you can bet on the outcome of future events. Think of them as a way to "vote with your money" on what you think will happen.
When you bet on a market, you're buying shares. Each share represents a portion of the market's outcome:
Prices are shown as percentages (e.g., "YES 58%" means YES shares cost 0.58 ETH each):
You think Bitcoin will reach $150,000 by end of 2025. The YES price is currently 58% (0.58 ETH per share).
When a market resolves:
You bought 10 YES shares at 0.50 ETH each (5 ETH total). Market resolves YES.
You bought 10 YES shares at 0.50 ETH each (5 ETH total). Market resolves NO.
Create an account by clicking "Sign In" β "Sign Up". You'll receive 0.01 ETH free to start trading!
Click the "Deposit" button in the navbar once you're signed in. You can connect a MetaMask wallet to send ETH directly, or use a debit/credit card via Ramp Network. Your deposit address is unique to your account β send ETH there and it will be credited within a few minutes after on-chain confirmation.
New accounts start with 0.01 ETH free so you can place your first trades right away β no deposit required. Practice ETH cannot be withdrawn. Make a real ETH deposit to withdraw your winnings to your own wallet.
Orny holds your ETH in a secure custody wallet. All trades are settled off-chain in our database for speed and zero gas costs. Your funds are safe and you can request a withdrawal at any time. Withdrawals are processed manually within 24β48 hours. We are actively working toward on-chain settlement in a future update.
Orny's team verifies real-world outcomes and resolves markets using public, verifiable sources (official announcements, trusted data providers, etc.). Resolution criteria are listed on each market's detail page. If the outcome is unclear, a market may be cancelled and all funds refunded.
Orny charges a 2.5% fee on each trade and a 1% fee on profits at resolution. The profit fee is only deducted from your net gain β never from your original investment.
Withdrawals are processed manually within 24β48 hours. You'll receive an email notification when your ETH has been sent. If you haven't received it after 48 hours, please contact support.
The cost depends on the current price and how many shares you buy. For example, if YES is at 60%, each share costs 0.60 ETH. Buying 10 shares would cost 6 ETH.
Currently, shares can only be redeemed when the market resolves. We're working on adding the ability to sell shares early!
Prices are determined by supply and demand - as more people buy YES, the YES price goes up. Prices reflect the collective probability assessment of all traders.
Markets are resolved by the market creator or platform administrators based on objective, verifiable criteria specified in the market description.
Yes! Visit the Ideas page to propose new markets. Popular ideas may be turned into official markets.
If a market is cancelled, all traders receive a refund of their original investment (cost basis) for both YES and NO shares.
Visit your Portfolio page to see all your active positions, past trades, and performance statistics.